The latest forecasts for the a-kassen predict a profit of 4.4 billion euros in 2022, or 1.9 billion more than expected in June.
Galloping inflation, energy crisis, war in Ukraine… despite the crises, Unédic’s economic prospects are good. The latest forecasts for the unemployment insurance scheme, published on Thursday, predict 13 billion euros in surplus in the period 2022-2024, reports The echoes. This is 3 billion better than the expectations in June last year.
“Unédic’s financial balance is better than in June. This will allow the regime to accelerate its deleveraging.confirmed the president of Unédic, Patricia Ferrand (CFDT). “In normal times, it is already not easy to understand our forecasts. In this very uncertain context, it is even more so.”, said its vice-president Medef, Jean-Eudes Tesson. It should be noted that the Ministry of Labor has just launched a consultation to adapt the compensation rules to the state of the labor market.
A profit of 4.4 billion euros in 2022
This improvement can be mainly explained by the effects of the increase in inflation. In addition to the automatic revaluations of the SMIC, it puts pressure on wages and the payroll on which the unemployment benefit is based, Unédic’s most important resource. The regime expects UI-related employment to stabilize next year (-6,000). The year 2022 was quite dynamic (+246,000). As a reminder, 2.6 million hires for more than a month excluding temporary work took place in the third quarter, according to Urssaf. A record.
This year, the expected profit is 4.4 billion euros, or 1.9 billion more than expected in June. Then it will be 4.2 billion euros in 2023 (+1.1 billion) and 4.2 billion also in 2024 (+1.1 billion). “It’s been a long time since that happened and never at this height in three years”, said its CEO, Christophe Valentie. The debt would then fall to 50.8 billion, and even to 32.4 billion if we remove the extraordinary part linked to the Covid crisis.