Unedic predicts a profit of 4.4 billion euros in 2022. Around 6,000 jobs will be destroyed in 2023
This had not happened since 2008… In 2022, despite a particularly unstable economic situation, the unemployment insurance scheme should generate a surplus of 4.4 billion euros, according to Unedic projections presented on Thursday. Last June, the joint body already counted on a positive balance of 2.5 billion euros; but the good results of employment in the first half of the year and, paradoxically, inflation enabled a real improvement in the health of the scheme.
The successive automatic increases in the minimum wage, and all the increases that occur in companies to compensate for the price increase, have actually made it possible to increase the wage bill in the country. And since the social security fund is financed by a contribution from the gross salary, turnover in 2022 has increased significantly. Added to this are the full effects of the 2021 reform and a lower number of unemployed people who must be compensated.
This rather mild situation may persist: Unedic predicts profits of 4.2 billion euros in 2023 and 2024. The fact is that debt is still a blot on this table. If this were to decrease by almost 13 billion euros within three years, it would still point to 50.8 billion euros by the end of 2024 (59.2 billion in 2022). In the eyes of Unedic, all expenses associated with the health crisis – largely partial activity -, i.e. 18.4 billion euros, should not be borne by the regime. “The Covid debt is sacrosanct and we share with the government our desire for this issue to be addressed. But we do not act that it is an un-Dedic debt“, explains Jean-Eudes Tesson, vice president of Unedic.
If the economic projections are favorable, in employment, on the other hand, they are much less. Between the beginning of 2021 and today, the economy has created more than 1 million jobs, 246,000 net job creations are planned this year. But 2023 should be the scene of a real stop to this dynamic. Unedic actually predicts 6000 job losses. This expected decline is closely linked to the poor growth that the organization estimates at 0.3% next year – “almost a recession“.
An improvement may occur in 2024, when Unedic expects 92,000 net job creations, partly due to a catch-up in productivity. However, these projections will depend on developments in the particularly unstable economic and energy situation. In addition, these forecasts do not take into account the reform projects that the government wants to make in order to aim for full employment, with especially new unemployment insurance rules.