You ask us about a column published Thursday in the world, devoted to the reform of unemployment insurance, and whose authors claim that“today, more than 60% of job seekers registered with Pôle Emploi are not compensated”. A parenthesis – essential – nevertheless follows this sentence: “Either because they are not eligible, or because they work and ‘earn too much’ to be compensated”.
Economist Bruno Coquet (OFCE) even mentions only 36.5% of compensation, or 63.5% of non-compensated.
If this figure of 60% of unemployed registered with Pôle Emploi and not compensated is not false, it is, in part, to be put into perspective. For this, we must return to the elements that constitute it.
Reduced activity, deficiency or sick leave
Pôle emploi, firstly, establishes the share of “compensable” jobseekers, that is to say those who meet the criteria giving them the right to compensation, in particular the duration of affiliation preceding unemployment. However, this share amounted, at the end of December 2021, to 60.1% of those registered with Pôle emploi in categories A, B and C. The share of those not entitled to compensation therefore amounted to 40%.
Of these 60.1% of those entitled to compensation, however, “only” 68.3% are compensated. Who are these uncompensated indemnifiables? Most of the time, explains Pôle Emploi, these are people in the following situations: deferred compensation, waiting period, particularly in the event of contractual termination, reduced activity with a salary not giving rise to the right to additional compensation. allowance, or sick leave or maternity leave, with, in this case, a relay of compensation by Medicare.
This leads, ultimately, to only 41% of people being compensated by Unemployment Insurance (68.3% of 60.1%), and therefore to 59% of people not being compensated at the end of 2021, a figure close to that cited in the grandstand (60%).
Rise in “uncompensated claimants”
First downside: some of the unemployed at the end of their rights are compensated by the State, via the ASS (specific solidarity allowance). Taking this system into account, we reach 47.4% of compensation, and therefore 52.6% of non-compensated at the end of 2021.
Moreover, if the share of job seekers receiving benefits continues to fall and has actually reached a historically low level, as can be seen in this graph below, produced by Mathieu Grégoire, lecturer at the University of Paris -Nanterre (data taken into account until June 2022), this decrease is mainly due, in recent years, to the increase in “non-compensated claimants”, and not just the increase in “non-compensated claimants”.
However, there is a significant difference between the two categories. In fact, speaking of the unemployed without benefits as a whole suggests that they receive nothing. What is wrong. “For those who are compensated but not compensated, these are – in part – people who are either in transition and supported by other systems (sick leave, maternity), or who have an income that exceeds the thresholds compensation because of reduced activity (categories B and C)”explains Mathieu Grégoire.
Hardening of access to compensation
Ultimately, at the end of 2021, among all those registered in category A, B, and C at Pôle Emploi: 31.9% of non-compensable persons (who do not pass or no longer pass the thresholds for opening a right), 20.7% of “compensated non-compensated” and 47.4% of compensated.
The fact remains that the reform of the Unemployment Insurance rules, which entered into force, for the most restrictive, in the fall of 2021, could this time have real consequences, downwards, on the share of those entitled to compensation, in particular because the lengthening of the duration of affiliation necessary to open or recharge rights, fixed at six months against four months previously. The reform will also have an upward effect on the share of non-compensated among those entitled to compensation. As Mathieu Grégoire explains, “for a claimant not to be compensated, he had, before the reform, to work and earn a lot, for example 130 hours in the month paid at his usual salary. Now with the 2021 reform, for many of them, simply working a few hours, for example 70, 80 or 90 hours, will justify depriving them of any compensation for the days not worked in the month”.
Finally, the future reform, currently under discussion, should further aggravate the situation since it is a question of once again tightening access to compensation, thus increasing the proportion of those not entitled to compensation.
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