Can Scotland hold another independence referendum without London’s deal? The British Supreme Court will decide this crucial question for the future of Great Britain on Wednesday.
Independence Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon has already unveiled the question: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”, and even the date, 19 October 2023, when she intends to organize this new consultation.
Already in 2014, 55% of Scots refused to leave the UK. But in the eyes of SNP separatists in power in Edinburgh, Brexit, which 62% of voters in the province opposed since stepping in, is a game-changer. They want Scotland to rejoin the EU as an independent state.
But the central government in London strongly opposes any further independence referendum and sees the 2014 vote as the end of the debate for a generation.
Pro-independence protesters gather in George Square in Glasgow, Scotland, on May 1, 2021 / AFP
Anticipating a legal battle with the government in London, Nicola Sturgeon took the lead in appealing to the High Court to decide whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to legislate on the issue without the consent of the UK government, on an issue on which Scots are particularly divided after the polls .
The independence leader believes she has an “indisputable mandate” to organize such an election, particularly because of the SNP’s majority in the local parliament.
– “Fundamental and inalienable right” –
At last month’s High Court hearing, lawyers representing the London government argued that the Scottish government cannot decide for itself whether to hold a referendum: Edinburgh must seek permission as it is a matter reserved for central government.
Opposing, Scotland’s highest judge, Dorothy Bain, argued that “the right to self-determination is a fundamental and inalienable right”.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon makes a statement on the independence referendum at the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood, Edinburgh, June 28, 2022 / AFP
In a recent blog post, Stephen Tierney, professor of constitutional law at the University of Edinburgh, said the “most likely” outcome is for Britain’s highest court to rule that a new vote must be declared over local government jurisdiction.
In such a scenario, Nicola Sturgeon has already warned that she would make the next UK general election, to be held in January 2025, a de facto referendum on the issue of independence.
During the 2021 local elections, she had promised to organize a legally valid referendum once the page of the Covid-19 pandemic had turned.
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